The campaign handed the governor the chance to counter Trump with California’s Democratic might, building on years of practice.
SACRAMENTO, California — Gavin Newsom called his redistricting win and the rest of Tuesday’s Democratic sweep evidence the beleaguered party is “in its ascendancy.”
He could have been talking about himself.
The California governor’s constituents handed him a career-defining triumph on Tuesday by approving a bid to thwart Donald Trump with a new congressional map that will help California Democrats flip up to five seats, bolstering the party’s chance of reclaiming a House majority despite the cascade of red states redrawing their congressional lines at the president’s behest.
But if the election buoyed national Democrats, party strategists around the country saw it, too, as lifting Newsom’s presidential prospects, rocket fuel for the California governor in a 2028 primary.
“Leaders are rewarded when they do the right thing,” said Neera Tanden, a longtime top policy adviser to Democratic presidents. “People are going to remember he stood up in this moment.”
It wasn’t a fight Newsom started, but it was almost tailor-made for him to join, and ultimately lead, given the upsides for both the Democratic Party and his own ambitions. The campaign handed Newsom the opportunity to counter Trump and national Republicans with California’s Democratic might, building on years of practice.
A campaign that once looked like like a longshot ended in an unambiguous victory — and Newsom was its star player, cementing his reputation as the kind of anti-Trump combatant Democrats say they are desperate for. Soon after the win he was positioning himself as a national pacesetter by exhorting fellow Democrats to follow his lead.
“Any person who pays attention to politics is assuming that this is the precursor to something else,” said former South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Trav Robertson, whose state Newsom toured this summer in a potential 2028 preview. “I think Gavin Newsom was the man for the hour, he was looking for this fight, and he answered it very well.”
Earlier in the year, Newsom was rapidly approaching the kind of lame duck cul-de-sac that can be perilous for ambitious politicians. California’s budget was in shambles, his poll numbers were faltering, and devastating wildfires compelled Newsom to play nice with the White House as he cajoled federal help.
Then, in the spring, he was fighting again with the White House, hostilities renewed by Trump’s tariffs and troop deployments into Los Angeles amid immigration raids.
In August, Trump demanded Texas Republicans deliver him more House seats. Already on a wartime footing against a hostile administration that had attacked California on every conceivable front, Newsom seized on a chance to once again make California the epicenter of the resistance. Soon he was hosting dissident Texas Democrats in Sacramento.
“Governor Newsom showed a lot of courage to do what needed to be done to counteract the clearly political moves Greg Abbott engaged in to follow the orders Donald Trump gave him,” said Gilberto Hinojosa, former chair of the Texas Democratic Party, referencing his state’s Republican governor. “You’ve got to have someone who has the courage to stand up to Trump, and that’s what Gavin Newsom is doing.”
Newsom swiftly united top California Democrats and key allies like labor unions behind the plan. But from the start, the California ballot initiative push took on the tenor of a national campaign: Newsom and his team coordinated with House leadership, enlisted party luminaries like Barack Obama, and framed Prop 50 as a maximum-stakes vote on the Trump agenda and American democracy.
It was a winning message in a Democratic state where Trump is profoundly unpopular. But it also boosted Newsom’s image and built out campaign infrastructure far beyond California’s borders.
Jeff Weaver, a senior adviser on Bernie Sanders’ presidential runs, said he was skeptical Newsom’s post-Prop 50 boost would continue for long and argued it was clear that California’s “overwhelmingly Democratic” electorate would approve the measure. Still, Weaver said, Newsom racked up significant advantages in this special election.
“It gave Governor Newsom an opportunity to further build his list,” Weaver said. “It also gave him an opportunity to flex his team. It’s very difficult to find opportunities to test your operation. Everything in California is at scale — not the scale of a presidential, but it’s as big as you can get without going national.”
The governor brought more than 100,000 new donors into the fold and onto his prized list. He became a campaign season fixture on network television, preaching the perils of Trumpism and extolling California’s role in fighting back while finally admitting his interest in the presidency. He reprised the stalwart party warrior role he’d embraced as a surrogate for Joe Biden.
By the campaign’s waning days, Newsom announced he’d raised as much money as he needed and began directing donors to send their money to other frontline Democratic races — continuing his work to fill a reservoir of goodwill with other Democrats.
He also reached beyond conventional media by looking to liberal influencers like Brian Tyler Cohen, whose YouTube channel has nearly 5 million subscribers. Cohen was actively a part of the Prop 50 campaign, including hosting a three-hour livestream featuring Newsom, other Democratic officials and a slew of content creators.
Cohen said Prop 50 represents the kind of assertive feistiness that is a necessity for anyone vying for the Democratic nomination in 2028.
“Any politician who puts their neck on the line and abandons the very circumspect mentality of the old Democratic party and actually leans in ten toes forward and fights — personally, in my opinion, that’s the kind of Democratic Party I want to see moving forward,” Cohen said. “We have to fight with the same intensity that (Republicans) are fighting. Prop 50 is a testament to exactly that.”
Winning an anti-Trump campaign in California is very different than winning a Democratic primary in South Carolina or Pennsylvania in a general election. Newsom would still have to answer for serious, entrenched challenges like a homelessness crisis and a soaring poverty rate while articulating a platform beyond stopping Trump.
“There is a clear difference between being the opposition and the resistance,” Robertson said, “and the person who moves people forward and creates the infrastructure needed to win the presidential nomination.”
And there’s no guarantee the relentless anti-Trump focus that has propelled Newsom’s rise now will carry the same cachet in a presidential primary years from now. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who has repeatedly sparred with Newsom, credited the governor’s punchy posture toward Trump as “cathartic” for fearful and frustrated Democrats. But he warned it would not be sufficient for Democrats.
“I think he should call out the president’s abuses of power. I think he should stand up for democracy,” Mahan said. “I also think there’s a risk of social media memes and name calling and all the rest being a sugar high that feels really good today, is extremely popular and leads to a crushing defeat electorally in a couple of years.”
Other potential 2028 presidential contenders are scrambling not to completely cede the spotlight to Newsom. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore stood up a redistricting advisory commission over the objections of his Democratic state Senate president. Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois, another state Newsom name-checked after his Prop 50 win, said Wednesday that his state “may have to react” if Republicans in neighboring Indiana coalesce behind a redraw.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s team issued a memo Wednesday morning, shared first with POLITICO, touting his work to protect key state Supreme Court seats this week and win upcoming battleground House races next year. And Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.), are preparing to travel to early-voting New Hampshire next week.
Nevertheless, Newsom has his party’s attention now more than at any previous point in his career.
“He’s showing people there are Democrats who are willing to step up and fight,” said Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried. “What that does for his career or a 2028 run I don’t know, but he’s been an example for Democrats to look to.”