Canada’s prime minister comes closer to a majority government just as he faces a test of his leadership — and so does Pierre Poilievre.
OTTAWA — Mark Carney is one step closer to cementing his control of Canada’s government — potentially strengthening his hand in a trade war with the United States.
The Canadian prime minister has been courting Conservative lawmakers as a make-or-break vote looms over his first federal budget, while his main political rival scrambles to keep his party from falling apart. This week, Carney successfully wooed one Conservative member of Parliament into joining his Liberal caucus, while another announced he would leave politics entirely.
Carney now stands two seats away from a majority government, which would secure his hold on the office — and his legislative agenda — until 2029. If he pulls it off, it would represent the second Houdini-like feat this year for the novice politician, after he swept in from the sidelines and convinced Canadians that what they needed to face down U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of annexation was a staid central banker.
The backdrop to the turmoil on Parliament Hill is a mid-November budget vote that Carney’s minority government must pass, or it faces sending Canadians to a Christmas election. For the prime minister, the vote will determine if his government survives its first year. For Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, it’s a test of whether he can keep his party united.
The drama has exposed deep fractures within the opposition Conservative Party, where a defection, a resignation and backroom tension are testing Poilievre’s grip on his caucus — and his lifelong dream of becoming prime minister.
Carney, who is two seats shy of a majority in the House, has openly acknowledged he’s recruiting from other parties. “My view is, always, I will talk to anyone,” he said this week.
On Tuesday, Chris d’Entremont, a then-Conservative MP, made a stunning admission to POLITICO that he was considering joining the Liberals. The former deputy speaker made the move official Tuesday night, sending shockwaves through the Conservative caucus.
He told POLITICO he knew of others contemplating an exit.
Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer and his colleagues were quick to denounce Carney’s maneuvering as undemocratic — even though hundreds of Ottawa politicians have switched parties while in office.
“He’s trying to cobble together a majority through undemocratic means, with backroom deals and pressure tactics,” Scheer said.
After d’Entremont’s defection, there was panic in the Conservative caucus. If more floor-crossers stepped forward, Carney’s Liberals would have a majority lock on the House, and Conservatives would be shut out of power for four more years.
The chaos deepened as speculation swirled that Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux would be next. The Alberta lawmaker’s office was forced to release a statement Wednesday insisting he was staying put with the Conservative Party.
Also circulating on the Hill was news that d’Entremont was facing widespread backlash. Police say the Nova Scotia politician and his office have faced death threats and harassment. “This activity has been reported to the RCMP, and there is an open, ongoing investigation,” a spokesperson for the Nova Scotia Royal Canadian Mounted Police told POLITICO.
What started as one defection is now threatening to upend Poilievre’s hold on his party months before his leadership review in January, when members will decide his fate.
Jeneroux had been in discussions with the Liberals and had even spoken with the prime minister about switching parties, said a Liberal lawmaker granted anonymity because they were not authorized to talk about the matter. The Prime Minister’s Office has declined to comment on the details.
Then, on Thursday afternoon, Jeneroux announced that he planned to quit politics altogether.
The news blew up just moments before a House vote on a Conservative motion aimed at toppling Carney’s government. Jeneroux did not take part in the vote, which didn’t pass.
Conservatives rallied to present a united front, insisting their colleague was leaving for personal reasons — not at all the same as d’Entremont’s move.
“We continue to be a strong team, strongly support our leader,” Conservative MP Kelly Block, a cousin of Poilievre, told reporters.
Poilievre said Jeneroux will stay on as MP until the spring, though Jeneroux said he hasn’t made a decision yet about the timing of his exit. When he leaves, it will open the door to a special election in an Edmonton district that the Conservatives narrowly won in May.
Behind the scenes, Liberals say they hope Jeneroux will run again — this time under their party banner — when the election is called, with at least one MP expressing regret that he didn’t just cross the floor.
“The best thing would be if he would have crossed the floor, joined us, so that we don’t put at risk a budget that I think is going to help all Canadians,” Liberal MP Judy Sgro said.
Poilievre avoided journalists all week, though he showed up in Toronto on Friday, where he projected confidence in a speech to business leaders.
“We need to reach more people, to broaden our base even more,” he said about his plan ahead of the next election. “We need to be on more platforms to showcase our incredible and highly professional team as a government-in-waiting. We need to be more present, both social and traditional media, and that’s how we’re going to grind out the extra support.”
Conservative MP Shuv Majumdar accused Parliament Hill journalists of turning the departure of Jeneroux into a story about palace intrigue.
“A lot of the press want to make it political. This is an opportunity for the press to pile on,” he said. “I want the press to make sure they understand, this is an opportunity to celebrate a great individual who sacrificed much of his life in service of the country.”
Jeneroux first announced his resignation on Instagram on Thursday evening, and he confirmed the news to POLITICO. He did not explain why he was leaving, though said he hoped to address the House of Commons one last time.
“For now, my focus must turn entirely to my family and to the responsibilities that come with that,” his statement read.
Later Thursday night, Jeneroux posted a second statement on his Facebook page emphasizing that his resignation was voluntary and reflected his desire to spend more time with his family.
“I want to be clear that there was no coercion involved in my decision to resign,” he said. “I consider my colleagues in the Conservative Party very close friends, and I will miss them dearly.”
Liberals argued that Jeneroux was forced into a sudden exit to protect his family from conservative bullying in response to rumors he was going to cross. Sgro told reporters Friday that there were several potential floor-crossers, “but they were threatened, and told all kinds of things, and really frightened some of them to stay back.”
Scheer hit back: “The only rumors I’ve heard of intimidation and harassment are from Liberals badgering Conservatives in elevators and calling them at home.”
The Liberals argue that chaos within the Conservative Party stems from Poilievre’s populist leadership, which they liken to Trump’s and say is driving the party further right.
“There’s no way this is just a coincidence,” Government Whip Mark Gerretsen said. “Pierre is systematically seeing every progressive MP within his political party abandon it.”
Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon boasted that Carney’s budget is “appealing” to Conservatives, arguing the Liberals already occupy “the middle of the road” — a space he says is widening under Poilievre’s leadership.
Lawmakers will vote on Carney’s federal budget Nov. 17. But the Liberals still lack the numbers to pass it. If Carney is unable to recruit or convince two opposition MPs to vote alongside his party, billions of dollars of government spending would be blocked, and it would trigger a snap election.