The California governor notched a major redistricting victory, and Republicans are paying attention.
Republicans insist Gov. Gavin Newsom of California isn’t a threat to the Trump presidency. White House allies argue privately that he’s too liberal, too manicured and just too California to win a national election.
And yet: They also acknowledge this week that Newsom looks more politically formidable than at any other point in his career.
One Republican strategist said Newsom’s winning redistricting campaign in California transformed him into a top rival of Donald Trump,” while another conceded it had cemented him as a “Tier 1 Democrat.”
The passage of California’s redistricting measure, Proposition 50, said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and former Trump administration appointee, represented “the rise of Gavin Newsom as a prime political opponent of Donald Trump.”
While Newsom had been at the forefront of Democrats’ opposition to Trump for months, Bartlett said, winning Proposition 50 delivered a tangible political victory in a face-off with the president.
For Newsom, the high-profile fight over redistricting served as a springboard for the term-limited governor to cultivate political capital with Democrats and expand his small-dollar donor base across the country ahead of his likely presidential run. As Trump and his allies mount pressure campaigns in Republican-led states to redraw their congressional districts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, Newsom’s explicit swing at Trump’s overreach proved successful, to the chagrin of Republican leaders-in-waiting who have yet to begin a serious exploration of who could take up the MAGA mantle in 2028.
One person close to Trump’s orbit, granted anonymity to discuss the White House’s thinking, said while the outcome was expected, “Newsom has done a good job of cementing as a Tier 1 Democrat.”
Ahead of the election, the president aired his frustration with Newsom’s redistricting push and said on Truth Social that it was “unconstitutional” and “a giant scam.” Other than those last-minute comments, however, Trump largely sat out of California’s redistricting war.
Meanwhile, Newsom’s fundraising team was able to raise $100 million in 10 weeks, tapping into major donors who gave to former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
It was not lost on Republicans how that Prop 50 push could translate to building an apparatus for a national campaign.
“I believe that Gavin Newsom is definitely using this opportunity to set himself up for a presidential race. There’s no question. And to his credit, he brought in over 100,000 new donors that now he can put in his database to use to go out and fundraise,” said former Republican Rep. Mimi Walters of California. “It’s giving him a higher profile, just given the nature of having a special election and the redistricting mid decade, which is unheard of, clearly has an impact.”
If Newsom’s rising profile — and stature among Democrats — was plain, many Republicans, however, did still not view his success on Tuesday as a risk to the GOP.
“He’s a Democratic governor in a very Democratic state. So, it’s not like he can claim to be a political genius as a Democrat in a very Democratic state,” said Brent Littlefield, a Republican consultant.
Voters’ opinions of Newsom, he said, would instead inevitably be based on “what he’s actually done as governor,” which Littlefield predicted would not “play well on the national level.”
Or as Bruce Mehlman, another GOP strategist, put it, “It was a big win for Newsom that improves his standing in what will surely be a hotly-contested Democratic primary in 2028, but it’s less clear how it positions him in a general election battle to win over swing voters.”
But Newsom has the GOP’s attention. When the California governor posts on social media about Trump or his administration, he typically gets a response from the White House and allies. Newsom in September said “Kristi Noem is going to have a bad day today,” which Trump officials elevated and criticized.
Following the results on Tuesday, the California governor on social media shared a series of AI images featuring a crying toddler-version of Trump, appearing to have a tantrum while being fed, in a stroller, and with a pacifier.
It was part of a more confrontational approach to social media that Newsom has embraced in recent months — and that, while popular with Democrats, Republicans predict could turn off general election voters in 2028. Newsom’s future opponents are closely watching what he does on social media, readying for campaign ads in the future, said Sam Geduldig, a lobbyist at CGCN Group and former aide to ex-Speaker John Boehner.
“Watching Newsom’s ‘greatest hits’ on conservative X accounts is like watching future debilitating campaign ads in real time,” Geduldig said. “These clips will be weaponized by any of his future opponents, either in a Dem primary or a general election against a Republican.”