Steyer says his ads helped ‘push Prop 50 over the finish line.’ The campaign begs to differ.

The Proposition 50 campaign tested 13 ads to rate their effectiveness — and Steyer’s two ads ranked at the very bottom.

Tom Steyer’s previous explorations of a statewide run went nowhere, but an open 2026 governor’s race offers a fresh opening. | Mark Makela/Getty Images

Tom Steyer isn’t waiting for the polls to close to take some credit for Proposition 50’s likely passage. A spokesperson for the billionaire investor — and possible contender for governor — sent out a memo Monday claiming that his eight-figure spend on Newsom’s redistricting measure helped “push Prop 50 over the finish line.”

The memo says the pair of ads, which have stoked speculation the onetime presidential hopeful was building up his profile in advance of a possible run for governor, “filled critical holes in the Yes effort” by rallying the Democratic base with an anti-Trump message.

“In the time Tom Steyer’s ‘Stick it to Trump’ first hit the airwaves to supplement the work of Governor Newsom’s Yes effort, Prop 50 went from polling around 50 percent to now being in a strong position to pass. That should be something for us all to celebrate,” said spokesperson Kevin Liao.

But the Yes on 50 campaign, which was already irked by Steyer’s foray into the contest, doesn’t exactly see it that way. For one thing, by the time Steyer’s ads began running in early October, the campaign’s internal polls found it had already consolidated the support of 90 percent of Democrats.

And research by the campaign obtained by Playbook tested 13 pro-Prop 50 ads to rate their effectiveness — and Steyer’s two ads ranked at the very bottom. In Steyer’s direct-to-camera spot, 43 percent of respondents agreed that viewing the ad would make them more likely to vote for the measure, while 52 percent disagreed with that statement. The second ad, featuring a Trump impersonator, performed even worse.

By contrast, the campaign’s “Fight” ad featuring Newsom had a positive effect on 76 percent of respondents, and another featuring Sen. Alex Padilla, also a potential candidate for governor, made 74 percent more likely to vote for Prop 50.

“Their ads were so ineffective Steyer should demand his money back,” said a Newsom adviser.

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