The tropics have a weather forecasting problem. He’s trying to fix it.

A sailboat beached by Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. Most weather forecasting models are less accurate at predicting storms in the tropics; that’s in part because different factors drive weather and climate near the equator than in the middle latitudes.
Rebecca E Marvil/Getty Images

Weather in the tropics is decidedly different than it is in the middle latitudes. It turns out, so are the weather systems – the factors that create things like the daily temperature and humidity!

“It’s almost like we live in two different worlds, even though we are on the same planet,” says Ángel F. Adames-Corraliza.

Adames-Corraliza is one of 22 recipients of this year’s MacArthur Fellowship, colloquially known as the “Genius Grant.” The Puerto Rican scientist researches tropical atmospheric systems, with a focus on how water vapor and humidity play a key role in shaping the weather there.

Ángel F. Adames Corraliza, atmospheric scientist and 2025 MacArthur Fellow
MacArthur Foundation

Historically, most weather forecasting models have been based on data from high-income countries in the northern hemisphere. The problem is, different factors drive weather and climate near the equator than in the middle latitudes – meaning that these weather forecast models are much less accurate at predicting weather in the tropics. That can have implications for storm readiness, flooding preparedness and more.

“At the end of the day, like, everybody deserves to have the best possible weather forecast. Everybody deserves to know to the best degree possible what’s going to happen in the climate in their region right now,” Adames-Corraliza says.

Leave a Comment